Journal article
Source notes
BMJ · 1986
Bibliographic details
Source record
Confidence intervals rather than P values: estimation rather than hypothesis testing
BMJ. 292(6522). 746-750.
- Study type
- Statistical methods article
- Review basis
- Abstract only
Knowing whether a result crosses a statistical threshold is different from knowing how large the result might be. The paper argues for giving more attention to estimates and confidence intervals when interpreting medical research. An interval presents a range around an estimated difference, using the study's data and statistical method. That range conveys information a simple significant-or-not label leaves out. The authors discuss calculations for averages and proportions and suggest graphical presentation. The accessible abstract contains no worked numerical example, so it supports the interpretive principle without allowing the detailed calculations to be checked here.
The important shift is from a binary label toward the size and uncertainty of an estimate. A reported difference between groups can be considered alongside the range of values compatible with the analysis. This still depends on the study and the method used. The paper's argument is that an interval, when appropriate, gives readers more useful information about a major finding than a threshold decision alone.
How Does This Show Up in Real Life?
Imagine reading that an intervention produced an improvement without being told how much improvement the data suggest. Even adding the word significant would not answer the practical question. An estimate with an interval gives the reader something more concrete to examine: the central result and the uncertainty surrounding it. That can help distinguish a result that is measured precisely from one that leaves a broad range of possibilities. It also makes it easier to ask whether the plausible differences would matter for the outcome being studied. The abstract recommends presenting intervals for major findings, including in summaries. It does not provide a universal rule for deciding which size of effect matters, or a guarantee that displaying an interval makes a study well designed.
Only the abstract was accessible, so the worked methods and examples could not be reviewed. The usefulness of an interval depends on its suitability for the study and analysis. This methodological argument does not validate any particular result, address every source of uncertainty or establish whether an intervention's effect persists over time. Those questions need the study's design and follow-up information.
Why We Cite It
Alpekin can use this source when deciding which numerical details deserve space in a research explanation. It supports giving readers information that helps assess the scale and precision of a result, rather than allowing a short statistical label to carry more meaning than it can provide.
The paper offers a useful direction for reading and presenting evidence, within the limits of abstract-only access. An interval encourages a more informative question about the result. It still needs to be understood alongside what was measured, in whom and under what conditions.
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